The Lesser of Two Evils?
What to know about the 2024 US presidential election - so far.
The 2024 US election may just become the most contested, most controversial, and above all, most influential election in a very long time. The primaries are in full swing, with Joe Biden and Donald Trump inching closer to the Democrat and Republican nominations.
After Trump’s biggest threat, Nikki Haley, dropped out of the race following Super Tuesday, it’s all but certain that he will win the nomination. Biden’s candidacy, however, is still being challenged. Even though she had pulled out in February, Democratic candidate Marianne Williamson has just “un-suspended” her campaign after finishing third in the Michigan primary. She may not be close to winning the race against Biden, but stated that “something so much more important than the horse race is at stake here”, referring to the threat of Trump’s possible election in November. Then there’s long-shot candidate Cenk Uygur, the “Young Turks” TV host, who also has not pulled out despite his low chances.
Biden and Trump pretty much have the nominations in the bag. But for many Americans, that’s bad news. Democrat politicians like Bernie Sanders are already endorsing Biden with the “lesser of two evils” argument. They say he’s the best shot at defeating Trump, whose re-election would have catastrophic consequences for American democracy. But Biden is losing Democratic voters’ trust, who are increasingly voting “uncommitted” in protest against him. So far, the primaries have set the stage for what is sure to be an uncertain presidential election, but one that will matter more than ever.
Super Tuesday
So, why are the presidential primaries important? Essentially, their outcome will decide who will appear on the general election ballot. Generally, it brings about one candidate for the Democratic Party, and one for the Republicans, as well as some third-party candidates. As with the general election, votes are counted per state. However, during the primaries, while some states allow all registered voters to cast their ballot for their preferred candidate, other states only allow voters who are registered within a specific party to do so. The latter are called “closed primaries”. Candidates are then awarded “delegates”, depending on how many votes they receive. To appear on the general election ballot, Republican candidates must win at least 1,215 delegates, while Democratic candidates need 1,968. The number of delegates that are distributed differs per state.
The primaries don’t all happen on the same day. Each state will have its own scheduled primary, with the most important day, Super Tuesday, seeing votes cast in 16 states. On Super Tuesday alone, one third of the delegates will be up for grabs. It’s often a decisive day for who will end up winning the nomination, and usually the most exciting day of the primaries. In 2020, Super Tuesday meant the end of Bernie Sanders’ campaign when Biden won the nomination in 10 states. This year’s Super Tuesday showed no surprises though, as both Biden and Trump pretty much have their nominations secured.
Uncommitted
While Biden is comfortably working his way toward the Democratic nomination, he is facing one, very significant threat - the “uncommitted vote”. On Super Tuesday, voters collectively brought out hundreds of thousands of uncommitted votes. In Michigan alone, over 100,000 voters chose the “no preference” option when casting their ballots. That’s 13 percent of the votes. In Minnesota, 19 percent of the votes went towards the uncommitted option: 45,000.
The significant results for uncommitted in the Democratic primaries were organized by the grassroots campaign “No Preference Y’all”, which encouraged people to express their discontent with President Biden’s verbal and material support for Israel’s war on Gaza. It is, most of all, a protest vote. Uncommitted votes aren’t going to cost Biden the nomination. But they are sending a message: change course now in your position on a permanent ceasefire, or lose the election.
Many of Biden’s endorsers have already tried to downplay the significance of the uncommitted voters. Senator John Fetterman, for example, has already faced criticism for posting memes on X, seemingly mocking uncommitted voters. He has also stated that voting uncommitted is helping Trump win. Of course, the results of the Democratic primaries are in no way connected to the results of the Republican primaries, as they are two separate events. But the responses are a sign that the protest vote isn’t going unnoticed.
It’s important to point out that some of the states that received a significant portion of uncommitted votes are swing states. Swing states are states that don’t always vote the same way, meaning the results for the general election could swing either towards a Republican or Democrat majority. Michigan and North Carolina, two states with a large number of uncommitted votes, are swing states. To put things into perspective, Biden beat Trump in 2020 by about 150,000 votes in Michigan. That’s a similar margin to the number of uncommitted voters in the Democratic primaries. Losing key support in swing states can therefore pose a substantial threat to Biden’s reelection come November.
One thing is clear. Voters are sending a clear message to Biden. And it is a wrong assumption to merely frame the uncommitted vote as wasted and a vote for Trump.
couldn’t have said it better this week:
He writes:
“People do not want a choice between genocidal Trump and genocidal Biden, and those are not the options. The option that the White House and various pundits want to pretend does not exist is Biden actually changing course. That choice would save untold thousands of lives, and perhaps a Trump presidency.”
Uncommitted voters do not want Trump to win the election. But they don’t want a President complicit in genocide either, who will use their tax money to send weapons to Israel. And Biden has already started to change course - somewhat. Both he and Vice President Kamala Harris have expressed the desire to have a temporary ceasefire by Ramadan: a small change, but an important one. It shows that even while he sweeps the primaries, Biden is spooked by the uncommitted, and he might just finally listen to them to save his re-election.
Is democracy being threatened?
What both the uncommitted voters and Biden’s loyal supporters have in common, is their fear of another Trump presidency. Trump is the uncontested preference for Republican voters, something that Biden can’t relate to. Many fear that a second Trump presidency poses a prominent threat to democracy itself. Reuters reported that political extremism or threats to democracy are the top concern for 21 percent of US voters. The economy and immigration were a close second and third. Interestingly, “threats to democracy” was by far the number one concern for Democrat voters, while immigration was the top priority for Republicans.
Some of the plans that Trump has outlined for his potential second presidency show that this concern is not unfounded. New York Magazine recently outlined some of his most unhinged plans. Under the name “Agenda 47” Trump has outlined plans that would undermine democratic departments like Congress, and give the President more unchecked power, which has rightfully scared many Americans. He also said he would use the Justice Department to have his adversaries investigated and charged with crimes, appointing a “real special prosecutor” to go after Biden and his family. He vowed to crack down on immigration, intending to deploy US troops to the Southern border, and even send them into Democrat-run states and cities.
Undeniably, Trump’s plans as President are eerily authoritarian. A Trump presidency would make the US unequivocably unsafe for vulnerable minorities. At the same time, more and more Americans don’t feel that the current democratic state represents them. They feel let down by Biden, whose stance on Gaza does not represent the majority of Americans - 61% of voters support a permanent ceasefire. And while many see this option as the lesser of two evils, others don’t see a difference at all.
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